Anybody wanna buy a system?

September 1st, 2008

Some of my friends are seduced by idea of making some reckons that will allow them to get to the edge of the house. Damn, but some of this stuff is good! Makes me wanna give up the poker and the slot machines, and settle down with a bottle or two to enjoy my retirement. Anyways, the young fellah just called. Caught me in a mellow mood for once. He thinks - well, we can suspend judgement on that for so long as he keeps paying me - he thinks I should explain myself. In one piece I’m saying there’s, “a proper mechanical playing strategy for video poker.” To think that next card can be predicted is a great players’ mistake. He thinks they doesn’t fit right together. So here’s a few words to make it all crystal. Did you ever see Ocean’s 11 - don’t matter whether it was the original Rat Pack version or the new ones with George Clooney and his pals? Did you notice how they always robbed the casinos. There was never a hint of walking through the door with a system for winning at the tables or on the slot machines. Hollywood got it right for once. The only way you guarantee a big score at a casino is as a thief - and you’ve to be lucky to enjoy your “takings” and avoid the hail of bullets if you get caught by wrong people. Look around online. You’ll see a small army of people touting their systems for beating all casino games with a house advantage. Play slot machines, win big. Win at blackjack without counting. Well, the same goes for all these salesmen pushing betting systems for slot machines. They’re trying to scam you outa your money. Take it from me. There ain’t no system around that even dents the House edge on games where the probabilities are set in the House’s favor. Math is math. Mind you. It’s not my money - you wanna fool yourself you can shade the odds in your favor on video poker, then feel free. So, how do these systems work? You’re supposed to base your bets on the most recent outcomes. E.g. roulette. People think that if black is winning all over the time, soon red must become a winning color. In fact that is NOT true. When I worked for casinos, we always nodded wisely when someone cautiously asked if they could play a system. Another little chicken ripe for the plucking. My father was counting deaths by the million over decades for the life companies. Probabilities and statistics only make sense in the long view. Short-term, you’ll find anomalies in all slot machines but, over time, the basic patterns are set in stone and in the House’s favor. You’ll see lucky streaks that look like they’re never going to end. But, so long as the House keeps its nerve, the winner will lose it all back again. It’s the same with the so-called systems. They aim to build up the small wins to offset the big losses. You’re not going to quit while you’re ahead, are you? Which means that any small winnings you picked up on the good days will all get given back to the casinos on the bad days. It’s just the way the House edge works. Like I say, you can’t beat the math. Which leaves me with my strategy, which I’ll get back to when I’m good and ready.

Can it be better to gamble online?

August 26th, 2008

Some of the motivation for regulation is the sense that online gaming is not regulated, i suppose. Go into any real world casino, Then Internet brought us much more freedom. Although when you look around today there is a whole new bunch of casinos opening up, nothing really beats the convenience of sitting at home and playing your way through games in comfort. Yet, there is a “crackdown”. This has produced international litigation with Antigua taking action against the US. This is more action than you see in some casinos.

Another explanation for the US Government’s action is protectionism that too many online dollars means less profit for the real world gaming establishments in the US.

So why should anyone want to play online? All you have are a few animated versions of the casino games that lack any sense of physical involvement. Worse, some of the games just are not the same. For example, thanks to the random number generator, counting the cards in online blackjack is a waste of time.

But because the overheads for running an online casino are significantly less than the real world equivalents (paying salaries to all those countless people is not required), the online payout schedules are more generous. Online operators can afford to return more of the stake money to the players and still make a good profit. This means you get better odds on the slots and at the roulette table than you would in the real world. But even more importantly, once you are online, you can switch games at the click of a mouse. You no longer have to wait on other players or croupiers. There is always another game ready to play. Because you do not have people looking over your shoulder (and judging you), you have more freedom to learn new games or try out different strategies without people getting impatient with you. And finally, you can get free money. In the real world, you can get drinks, food and, sometimes, accommodation comped. Online, the only thing the casino can give you is a credit of money.

So does that mean online gaming is a “good thing”? We still have one thing that isn’t good: online games are too easy to play. There you are at home or sitting in a hot spot with your wifi laptop and there is no-one to tap you on the shoulder to warn you that you are riding a losing streak into bankruptcy. But, so long as you have your gambling under control, you say when, where and how long you play. What can be better than that?

Blackjack and wonging: a story of success

August 13th, 2008

In 1975, Stanford Wong came out with Professional Blackjack guide.

The counting system Wong published was the Hi-Lo Count, and like Revere’s count, used the easy divide-by-remaining-deck(s) approach to running count adjustments. So, at last, some twelve years after Harvey Dubner had proposed the Hi-Lo count values, his system was available in a format both fully optimized with strategy indices, and presented with a simple methodology of play. Wong’s table-hopping approach to shoe games was in many ways similar to Al Francesco’s Big Player (BP) team approach, but allowed a solo card counter to attack shoe games invisibly, and without a team of spotters. This playing style has since become widely known as wonging.

How to Tell if Your Opponent is Bluffing

August 13th, 2008

Believe it or not, even in online poker where you cannot see a “poker face” per se, there are some telltale signs that a player is bluffing.

When on the lookout for a bluff, beware of players who are chatting about how their poor luck is, especially if you notice that they are raising pots at the same time. Also be wary of players who raises before the flop and then quickly raises again after the flop. When this occurs, don’t call unless you are reasonably sure you can win with what is already in your hand.

Another sign of a bluff is a player who is “sitting out” and then suddenly re-enters the game just as the cards are being dealt. If this player is also quick to call or raise, he or she may simply be in too much of hurry to seriously be playing a good hand. Playing quickly is a sure sign of a bluff in poker games. To win consistently with good hands, players must take the time to play strategically. Someone who always plays holdem poker quickly is not taking the time necessary to play a good hand. On a similar note, very loose players who bet on every hand are also very likely to be bluffing much of the time. It isn’t possible to always have a good starting hand.

Always pay attention to what a player shows at the end of a hand. This is another way to pick out a bluff. If you notice a player raise before the flop and that player loses the hand, notice what he or she shows. If it is not much, it is probably a bluff, and the player is likely to try it again. Be aware of that player’s tendency to bluff foolishly.As you can see, playing with impatience is, in fact, one of the biggest mistake a poker bluff will make. While a good bluff may be able to fake patience, an impatient player is a top suspect for being a bluff.